13 Is A Magic Number

Tonight's NCAA regional quarterfinal between Kansas and USC had me thinking about the idea of 13 kills being a sort of magic number (see here and here). Get that and you are going to have a good chance to win the set. Similarly, hold the other team to 10 kills, or be +3 kills when comparing your kills per set to their kills per set. So how did the teams do?

Kansas vs USC
Kansas took the first two sets, 11-9 in kills for a +2, and 12-10 for another +2. USC took the next two, 18-11 (+7) and 14-13 (+1). The final set went to Kansas, 10-9 (+1). 13 kills per set scales down to 8 kills per set on a 15 point set.

Texas vs Florida
Florida took sets 1 and 4, 15-13 (+2) and 15-12 (+3). Texas took sets 2 and 3, 16-17 (-1) and 15-11 (+4). The final set went to Texas 11-9 (+2).

Minnesota vs Hawaii
Minnesota took sets 1, 2, and 4, 16-12 (+4), 12-9 (+3), and 20-16 (+4). Hawaii won their set 22-15 (+7).

Nebraska vs Washington
Nebraska took sets 1, 3, and 4, 11-10 (+1), 19-12 (+7), and 20-13 (+7). Washington took their set 15-12 (+3).

On 18 total sets played this round, each set winner outscored the other team in kills with one exception. Six total sets had the winning team with less than 13 kills, but two of those were fifth sets. Ten sets were won with 3 or more kills separating the teams. Losing teams managed to collect more than 10 kills 13 times. It's a small sample, but scoring 13 or more kills per set resulted in a win 75% of the time when removing fifth sets. Having at least 3 more kills than the other team resulted in a win 55.6% of the time. Achieving both standards resulted in a win every time. After removing the fifth sets, there are only the sets where a team was held to 10 or fewer kills. Each of those three sets were lost by those teams held to no more than 10 kills. That will probably be the toughest standard to achieve. This round of the tournament seems to support the standard of 13 kills per set, holding the other team to no more than 10, and getting at least 3 more kills than the other team.