I've been collecting data on the 2015 NCAA Men's Volleyball season. In the past I have seen how different stats have correlated with the order of finish (specifically in the MPSF) and want to collect more data to see how things have changed over time. When I first saw these about 15 years ago, the stats with the strongest correlation coefficient were serve receive errors and efficiency. This translates to the teams who have the fewest serve receive errors and have the best efficiency finish highest in the conference, and the relationship between them is almost at a 1st in the stats = 1st in the order of finish, 2nd in the stats = 2nd in order of finish, etc.
One of the first things I noticed this time around is that the stat that correlated most was kills per set. First, this is a change from the earlier top spot being efficiency. Secondly, this goes well with what I observed when looking at how points were scored in set wins at the 2015 FIVB World League (see here). In the MPSF example, the top team had an average of almost 14 kills per set. This is for wins and losses, and doesn't take into account either sets with more than 25 points, or fifth sets to 15. In World League the set winners were right around 13 per set based on 25 point sets. It looks like 14 is a really solid standard to have as a goal to win sets. Also in the MPSF data, the difference between kills per set and opponent kills per set correlated fairly well, but not nearly as strongly as kills per set alone. The difference for the top team was about 3.
There is a lot more that I need to digest in this, but it looks like aiming for 13 kills per set and holding the other guys to 10 per set will leave your team in a very strong position to win.
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